Jon Cope Blog
"Fantasy Outlook"
Jul 30, 2010
Here’s an overview of the Dolphins Key Fantasy Players and where you might want to take them in your upcoming fantasy draft:
The Early Round Stud: Brandon Marshall (late 2nd round/Early 3rd round)
Pros: Marshall has consistently been an ultra-productive receiver; he comes to Miami after posting 3 consecutive 100 catch, 1,000 yard seasons in Denver. He racked up 1,120 yards and 10 TDs last season playing with Kyle Orton at QB and while feuding with his coach. Marshall is the prime of his career, at age 26, as he has learned plenty of ways to use his great physical tools to the max, and there’s no worry about him slowing down despite minor off-season hip surgery. Chad Henne is a far superior QB to Kyle Orton and should be able to get him the ball downfield….in Henne’s one season with a receiver that possessed the size & speed combination of Marshall, Braylon Edwards had 1,330 yds & 15 TDs teaming up with Henne at Michigan in 2004. Finally, other than Marshall, Miami doesn’t have a great receiving target in the red zone- they were so desperate last year, the Fins were calling red zone plays for Joey Haynos- those targets will go to Brandon this year and I expect double-digit TDs.
Cons: Tony Sparano has been on record saying that his perfect recipe for a win is running the ball 40-45 times a game and throwing about 20-25. The Dolphins attempted the 3rd most running plays in the NFL last season, and with the tandem on Ronnie & Ricky back for another year, the Fins will still want to be a smash-mouth, run-first team. So with Miami throwing less than the Broncos did the past few years, Marshall numbers may dip slightly. There also might be an adjustment period for Marshall- learning a new offense and gaining chemistry with Henne. Lastly, the schedule does Marshall no favors, Miami plays 8 games against teams that ranked in the top 8 in pass defense in 2009, including 2 trips to Revis Island with one of those being Week 14-the first week of the fantasy playoffs for many.
Outlook- Marshall should be taken somewhere between picks 18 and 25 of a draft. There are a few too many questions with Marshall’s move to Miami to recommend taking him in any higher, but Marshall’s physical gifts and production over the past few years make him a nice #1 WR for any fantasy team.
WRs I’d take before him: Andre Johnson & Calvin Johnson
I’d take him ahead of these WRs: Randy Moss, DeSean Jackson, Anquan Boldin
The Mid-Round Running Backs: Ronnie Brown (4th/5th Round) and Ricky Williams (6th/7th Round)
Ronnie Brown- another promising start to a season, another season-ending injury for Ronnie Brown. The good news is the last time Ronnie was coming off an injury was in 2008 (after tearing ACL in ’07), and in ’08 he posted his best year- a Pro-Bowl season that rewarded his fantasy owners with 11 TD’s and over 1,100 total yards. Ronnie has been able to rack up the TDs under Sparano (20 in 25 gms.), and while the Fins might throw a little more with Marshall, the threat of a big-time playmaker on the outside should open up more running lanes. The downside with Ronnie in addition to his history of injuries is of course Ricky Williams, who will eat into his carries. Ricky was tremendous down the stretch in ’09 after Ronnie went down, and while Ronnie should be the starter come the season opener, Ricky figures to get 10-15 touches a game.
Outlook-Ronnie should be taken as a #2 Running Back between picks 40 and 60 of most drafts. If he can stay healthy, Ronnie should reward owners with a big year in an improved offense. That’s been a huge IF throughout Ronnie’s career, but at age 28 and in a contract year, some might say Ronnie is ready for a career year.
RB’s that I’d take ahead of him include: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, & Beanie Wells
I’d take him in front of these RB’s: Joseph Addai, Matt Forte, & Marion Barber
Ricky Williams- Ricky is coming off a brilliant season that reminded some of his 2002 glory days with the Fins as Williams rushed for over 1,100 yards and had 13 total touchdowns. Ricky’s production sky rocketed after Ronnie Brown got injured versus Tampa as Ricky became the feature back once again. However with Ronnie expected to be healthy by the opener, Ricky’s touches will once again be limited to perhaps 10 a game. Also Ricky is 33, ancient in NFL Running Back years, sure he missed a few years but you still have to wonder when we will start to see a decline in his performance
Outlook- Ricky should be taken as a back-up Running Back anywhere from pick 60 to pick 80. If Ronnie stays healthy, it’s hard to see Ricky being a reliable fantasy starter except against very poor defenses. Of course if Ronnie gets hurt, Ricky’s value goes thru the roof. But even with Ronnie’s history, can you really count on injuries? With Ricky’s age also factoring in, I would rather choose a young RB with upside to start at this stage in the draft.
RB’s that I’d take ahead of him include: Felix Jones, Jahvid Best, & Justin Forsett
I’d take him in front of these RB’s: Reggie Bush, Clinton Portis, & Thomas Jones
Late Rounders:
Chad Henne- I like Henne as a back-up fantasy Quarterback for 2010. Henne will be in his first full year as a starter and the addition of an elite Wideout with Marshall should give him the ammo to take a big step up from his 12 TDs and 2,800 yards last year. I’d take a flier on him, but only after I have an established started in hand first….there are 10-15 proven QBs who should be picked ahead of Henne.
Dan Carpenter- Fantasy Kickers are extremely hard to predict; I’d recommend waiting until the last or next to last round to select one. Carpenter was an impressive 25-28 last season and should see more attempts this year with the improved Dolphins offense. However, Carpenter doesn’t have the long-range abilities of some other Kickers so he won’t get you those 50 yarders to boost scoring.
Dolphins Defense/Special Teams- New Dolphins Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan has been preaching being aggressive, attacking offenses, and scoring with the ball after creating turnovers. That is all great news for prospective fantasy owners; the bad news is that there are serious questions about the pass rush after the departure of Joey Porter and Jason Taylor. The Dolphins defense isn’t a Top 10 Fantasy Defense by any means; but they’re worth consideration in deep leagues because of Nolan’s aggressive nature and a soft late-season schedule featuring home games against the Bears, Browns, Bills, and Lions.
Fins to Avoid:
WRs outside of Brandon Marshall- there’s just not enough catches and yards to around after Marshall gets his to make any of the Camarillo, Bess, and Hartline trio an effective fantasy option in 2010. These guys are all solid NFL Wide Receivers but they are almost interchangeable; I envision Dan Henning spreading out the game snaps between these guys which might be good for the Fins but it’s death to their fantasy prospects. Maybe in New Orleans 3 Wide Receivers can put up enough stats to be fantasy relevant, but in a run-oriented offense like the Dolphins only 1 receiver is worth your interest. In the late rounds I’d rather take a shot on a guy who can become the #1 WR on his respective team (Kenny Britt, Eddie Royal, Johnny Knox, Laurent Robinson, Mohamed Massaquoi, etc).
Anthony Fasano- Fasano’s production dropped last season, and was used more as a blocker than receiver in many games. He has never had more than 34 catches in season during his career, and Brandon Marshall figures to take away some of his targets in the red zone. Fasano’s numbers may improve slightly this year with Marshall opening up the middle of the field, but they’re far too many proven Tight End options that should be taking ahead of him.
